Vaccine of the day: Flu

It's this time of a year again. The flu season just started and so did the endless (free) flu shot advertizements. I don't watch TV (except for HGTV and only when in a hotel, like now, as we don't have HGTV at home), so I don't notice the scare commercials so much these days. I have also never have and never will get a flu shot. Nor will I allow P to get one before he is 21 and can decide for himself. But either way, I decided to do a bit of research on how really dangerous is the flu. Please note that my only source of information is CDC website, so it's all legit (well, as legit as it gets, anyway).

Estimates of Deaths Associated with Seasonal Influenza --- United States, 1976--2007 (http://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/mm5933a1.htm):

"A previous study (2) presented an average annual estimate of 25,420 influenza-associated respiratory and circulatory deaths during a 23-season period; this study estimated an average of 23,607 annual influenza-associated deaths using the same model but over a 31-year period. The findings in this report are similar to those of previous CDC studies (2,3) and other cross-decade studies that used similar models (4,7).

(...)

Variations in influenza-associated mortality by age group also should be noted. As reported in this and other studies (2,3), approximately 90% of influenza-associated deaths occur among adults aged ≥65 years. An estimated annual average of 124 persons aged <19 years and 2,385 aged 19--64 years die from influenza-associated respiratory or circulatory causes. (...)"

If I am reading it correctly, an estimated average of 124 persons aged 0-19 died of influenza annually between 1976 and 2007. Per Census data (http://www.census.gov/prod/cen2010/briefs/c2010br-03.pdf), there were 74,181,467 persons under 18 in 2010 (we are not even including those who were 18 and 19 in 2010, which would make the chances even smaller). 124 accounts then for... 0.000167% (rounded here), which is 0.00000167. Just to compare, the chances of getting stuck by lightning are 0.00000143. This number includes those with compromised immune system, so the chances for a young healthy person are most likely significantly smaller than even that tiny number.

Let's look at the rest of the population. Again, if I am reading it correctly, an estimated 2,509 persons 65 and younger died annually of influenza during the same time period. The same Census report estimates 308,745,538 total population for 2010 including 40,267,505 over the age of 65, which leaves 268,478,033 younger than 65 (again, this number doesn't include people who actually were 65 in 2010). This means that an average person younger than 65 has 0.000935% or 0.00000935 (rounded) chance of dying from the flu.

Just as a comparison, here is a link to Leading Causes of Death (http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/leading-causes-of-death.htm) which lists the following 10 top causes and the numbers:


Heart disease: 596,577
Cancer: 576,691
Chronic lower respiratory diseases: 142,943
Stroke (cerebrovascular diseases): 128,932
Accidents (unintentional injuries): 126,438
Alzheimer's disease: 84,974
Diabetes: 73,831
Influenza and Pneumonia: 53,826*
Nephritis, nephrotic syndrome, and nephrosis: 45,591
Intentional self-harm (suicide): 39,518

* includes both Influenza AND Pneumonia

With approximated 25,000 deaths per year (90% of which in population 65 and older), influenza is far from being a real threat.

Now, even if you do get the vaccine, the antibodies, which are supposed to prevent you from getting the flu, do not develop in the body until about two weeks after vaccination (http://www.cdc.gov/flu/protect/keyfacts.htm). However, even if it worked, the vaccine is designed to work against only 63% of all flu viruses (http://www.cdc.gov/flu/news/nasal-spray-effectiveness.htm):

"Of the subtyped viruses reported to CDC from the week ending October 5 through the week ending October 25, 2014, 387 (31%) have
been H3N2 viruses, 387 (31%) have been influenza B viruses and 16 (1%) have been H1N1 viruses. Another 466 influenza A viruses were not subtyped."

The flu vaccine works only against the H3N2, H1N1, and influenza B, therefore it does not work against 37% of other influenza viruses.

Now, I showed above that there is a really, really, really small chance of dying of the flu. But the flu isn't fun anyway, I get that. I would rather not get the flu, and not feel like cra* for a week. Unfortunately (to those who think getting the shot will prevent that) there are some side effects you are likely to get after getting the flu shot (http://www.cdc.gov/flu/protect/keyfacts.htm). Ant they are:

• runny nose, nasal congestion or cough
• fever
• headache and muscle aches
• wheezing
• abdominal pain or occasional vomiting or diarrhea
• sore throat
• cough, chills, tiredness/weakness

Well, if I feel like this, I really don't care if you call if a flu or flu vaccine side effect.

Lastly, if you actually do get the flu, you can still be treated! Per CDC (http://www.cdc.gov/flu/antivirals/whatyoushould.htm): "There are prescription medications called "antiviral drugs" that can be used to treat influenza illness." Don't get me wrong, I do NOT recommend taking them (what I would do if I got a flu is a story for another post), but there clearly are alternatives or options for someone who does get the flu.

So, no flu vaccine for us. But, as always, you need to decide for yourself.

Vaccine of the day: Measles

A while ago, over a year, actually, I promised myself to do research about one vaccine (or disease) a month. This went nowhere as I would always find some great articles about other vaccines/diseases and get sidetracked. But today I found a lot of great articles from US National Library of Medicine National Institutes of Health that are related to Measles and vaccines against it. Here is the list, not in any particular order:

1. Measles incidence, vaccine efficacy, and mortality in two urban African areas with high vaccination coverage. (“Even though 95% of the children had measles antibodies after vaccination, vaccine efficacy was not more than 68%.”) - http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/2230232

2. Measles-specific neutralizing antibodies in rural Mozambique: seroprevalence and presence in breast milk. (“A notable proportion of the population in Manhiça, Mozambique apparently remains susceptible to clinical measles despite recent mass vaccination campaigns.”) - http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/18981523

3. An evaluation of measles serodiagnosis during an outbreak in a vaccinated community. (“A history of prior vaccination is not always associated with immunity nor with the presence of specific antibodies.”) - http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/3168353

4. Herd immunity. Measles outbreak in a fully immunized secondary-school population. (“We conclude that outbreaks of measles can occur in secondary schools, even when more than 99 percent of the students have been vaccinated and more than 95 percent are immune.”) - http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/3821823

5. A persistent outbreak of measles despite appropriate prevention and control measures. (“This outbreak suggests that measles transmission may persist in some settings despite appropriate implementation of the current measles elimination strategy.”) http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/3618578

6. Major measles epidemic in the region of Quebec despite a 99% vaccine coverage. (“Vaccination coverage for the total population was 99.0%. Incomplete vaccination coverage is not a valid explanation for the Quebec City measles outbreak.”) http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/1884314

7. How threatening is measles in a civilized country. Clinical and epidemiological findings during a measles outbreak occurring in a population with a high vaccination coverage. (“One or more complications were reported for 68 cases and in 8.9% of the studied cases hospitalization was required.”) - http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/8668833

8. The 1992 measles epidemic in Cape Town--a changing epidemiological pattern. (“The possible reasons for this [outbreak] include both primary and secondary vaccine failure.”) - http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/7740350

and the last but not least:

9. Lack of correlation between the number of measles cases (goes up and down) vs. vaccination efforts (increased with time). However, there seems to be another trend: With more children being vaccinated over the years, more of the little ones become sick with Measles (median age fell from almost 7 years to 14 months and to 11 months. Note, first Measles vaccine is given in China at 9 months). Monitoring progress towards the elimination of measles in China: an analysis of measles surveillance data ("The number of provinces that reported an annual incidence of less than one case per million population increased from one in 2009 to 15 in 2012 but fell back to one in 2013. Median case age decreased from 83 months in 2005 to 14 months in 2012 and 11 months in January to October 2013. Between 2008 and 2012, the incidence of measles in all age groups, including those not targeted for vaccination, decreased by at least 93.6%.") - http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4007128/

Enjoy.

Parker turns 3

I can't believe Parker is already 3! I don't have much time to write now so this will be quick. Just wanted to note that he dropped his naps almost entirely (takes a nap 1-2/week). Wakes up around 7 am and goes to sleep at 6 if you let him. :) Unfortunately, due to our work schedule we can't put him to sleep until closer to 7 or 8 (we don't come home until 6:30-6:45). In this case he is exhausted and his sleep is not very restful as he wakes up multiple times. Those days he is likely to fall asleep at 6 pm. Last Monday I teleworked from a coffee shop and Aga and Parker came to see me on the way from school. We had lunch together and they decided to stay as there was a playroom attached where Parker played. Parker and I walked home and he ended up falling asleep in my arms at 5:45. Marc and I tried to wake him up for an hour after which we changed him into his PJs and let him sleep,. He didn't wake up until 6:45 am.

Parker goes to a Montessori school 5 days a week from 8:45 to 12. He likes it a lot and really likes one of his teachers, Ms. E. Drop off was pretty hard the first few times but now, after over a week, he is happy to go and there are no tears.

P's allergy "status" has changed since last year. We have confirmed that he has dairy and chick peas allergy, however he does NOT have sesame seed allergy. Unfortunately, he has a pretty bad soy allergy.

He loves soups, pasta, and rice. He likes broccoli, cucumber, tomato and avocado in a form of guacamole. :) He also loves the "healthy" (if such exists) cereal. :)

Parker loves letters, numbers, and shapes. And he is into languages. His first language is Polish (still) and second is English, of course. Lola still speaks to him in Spanish but he is no longer as interested in Spanish as he was a couple of months ago. His new love is Russian! He taught himself Russian alphabet and asks us to tell him how to say things in Russian. He names letters in Russian (so B is Veh and P is R).

Here is the newest picture taken on our vacation at the OBX a few days before his third birthday.