It's this time of a year again. The flu season just started and so did the endless (free) flu shot advertizements. I don't watch TV (except for HGTV and only when in a hotel, like now, as we don't have HGTV at home), so I don't notice the scare commercials so much these days. I have also never have and never will get a flu shot. Nor will I allow P to get one before he is 21 and can decide for himself. But either way, I decided to do a bit of research on how really dangerous is the flu. Please note that my only source of information is CDC website, so it's all legit (well, as legit as it gets, anyway).
Estimates of Deaths Associated with Seasonal Influenza --- United States, 1976--2007 (http://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/mm5933a1.htm):
"A previous study (2) presented an average annual estimate of 25,420 influenza-associated respiratory and circulatory deaths during a 23-season period; this study estimated an average of 23,607 annual influenza-associated deaths using the same model but over a 31-year period. The findings in this report are similar to those of previous CDC studies (2,3) and other cross-decade studies that used similar models (4,7).
(...)
Variations in influenza-associated mortality by age group also should be noted. As reported in this and other studies (2,3), approximately 90% of influenza-associated deaths occur among adults aged ≥65 years. An estimated annual average of 124 persons aged <19 years and 2,385 aged 19--64 years die from influenza-associated respiratory or circulatory causes. (...)"
If I am reading it correctly, an estimated average of 124 persons aged 0-19 died of influenza annually between 1976 and 2007. Per Census data (http://www.census.gov/prod/cen2010/briefs/c2010br-03.pdf), there were 74,181,467 persons under 18 in 2010 (we are not even including those who were 18 and 19 in 2010, which would make the chances even smaller). 124 accounts then for... 0.000167% (rounded here), which is 0.00000167. Just to compare, the chances of getting stuck by lightning are 0.00000143. This number includes those with compromised immune system, so the chances for a young healthy person are most likely significantly smaller than even that tiny number.
Let's look at the rest of the population. Again, if I am reading it correctly, an estimated 2,509 persons 65 and younger died annually of influenza during the same time period. The same Census report estimates 308,745,538 total population for 2010 including 40,267,505 over the age of 65, which leaves 268,478,033 younger than 65 (again, this number doesn't include people who actually were 65 in 2010). This means that an average person younger than 65 has 0.000935% or 0.00000935 (rounded) chance of dying from the flu.
Just as a comparison, here is a link to Leading Causes of Death (http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/leading-causes-of-death.htm) which lists the following 10 top causes and the numbers:
Heart disease: 596,577
Cancer: 576,691
Chronic lower respiratory diseases: 142,943
Stroke (cerebrovascular diseases): 128,932
Accidents (unintentional injuries): 126,438
Alzheimer's disease: 84,974
Diabetes: 73,831
Influenza and Pneumonia: 53,826*
Nephritis, nephrotic syndrome, and nephrosis: 45,591
Intentional self-harm (suicide): 39,518
* includes both Influenza AND Pneumonia
With approximated 25,000 deaths per year (90% of which in population 65 and older), influenza is far from being a real threat.
Now, even if you do get the vaccine, the antibodies, which are supposed to prevent you from getting the flu, do not develop in the body until about two weeks after vaccination (http://www.cdc.gov/flu/protect/keyfacts.htm). However, even if it worked, the vaccine is designed to work against only 63% of all flu viruses (http://www.cdc.gov/flu/news/nasal-spray-effectiveness.htm):
"Of the subtyped viruses reported to CDC from the week ending October 5 through the week ending October 25, 2014, 387 (31%) have
been H3N2 viruses, 387 (31%) have been influenza B viruses and 16 (1%) have been H1N1 viruses. Another 466 influenza A viruses were not subtyped."
The flu vaccine works only against the H3N2, H1N1, and influenza B, therefore it does not work against 37% of other influenza viruses.
Now, I showed above that there is a really, really, really small chance of dying of the flu. But the flu isn't fun anyway, I get that. I would rather not get the flu, and not feel like cra* for a week. Unfortunately (to those who think getting the shot will prevent that) there are some side effects you are likely to get after getting the flu shot (http://www.cdc.gov/flu/protect/keyfacts.htm). Ant they are:
• runny nose, nasal congestion or cough
• fever
• headache and muscle aches
• wheezing
• abdominal pain or occasional vomiting or diarrhea
• sore throat
• cough, chills, tiredness/weakness
Well, if I feel like this, I really don't care if you call if a flu or flu vaccine side effect.
Lastly, if you actually do get the flu, you can still be treated! Per CDC (http://www.cdc.gov/flu/antivirals/whatyoushould.htm): "There are prescription medications called "antiviral drugs" that can be used to treat influenza illness." Don't get me wrong, I do NOT recommend taking them (what I would do if I got a flu is a story for another post), but there clearly are alternatives or options for someone who does get the flu.
So, no flu vaccine for us. But, as always, you need to decide for yourself.
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